I still remember the tension in the room that night—the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery felt like watching fate unfold in real time. As someone who's followed basketball for over two decades, I've never lost that childlike excitement when those envelope openings determine franchises' futures. The Phoenix Suns landed the first pick with just 20% odds, while the Sacramento Kings jumped to second despite having only 5.3% chance at the top spot. Meanwhile, my hometown Memphis Grizzlies slipped to fourth, and I'll admit I spent the next hour complaining to my friends about how unfair the system felt.
What struck me most that year was how these lottery results created ripple effects beyond just team rosters. I recently came across Eastern coach Mensur Bajramovic's fascinating comment about wanting his wards to play like the Ginebra mantra when facing the Gin Kings in front of their fans. This philosophy resonates deeply with what we saw develop after that 2018 draft—teams weren't just drafting players, they were drafting identities. The Ginebra mantra Bajramovic referenced embodies that never-say-die attitude that transforms how teams approach both drafting and development. I've always believed that the most successful franchises draft for culture as much as they do for talent.
Looking back, the 2018 lottery class proved something I've long suspected—draft position matters less than development system. Luka Doncic went third to Atlanta before being traded to Dallas, while Trae Young went fifth to Atlanta. Both became superstars, but their paths could've been entirely different with different organizations. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton going first to Phoenix made sense statistically—7'1" centers with his mobility don't grow on trees—but I've always wondered if Sacramento would've taken him second had they won the lottery instead. These what-ifs keep me up at night more than I'd like to admit.
The connection between Bajramovic's coaching philosophy and draft outcomes became clearer to me during last season's playoffs. Teams that drafted players fitting their core identity—like Memphis with Jaren Jackson Jr. at fourth—showed more cohesive growth than teams that simply took the "best available" without considering system fit. I've visited multiple NBA front offices through my work, and the smartest ones have what I call "identity drafting" strategies rather than just drafting based on talent alone. They're looking for players who embody their version of that Ginebra mantra Bajramovic described.
What fascinates me about lottery night is how it represents both pure chance and meticulous planning. The Suns had 20% odds at the top pick but 79% chance of landing in the top three—those numbers represent years of calculated losing that I have mixed feelings about as a purist. Yet within that structured probability lies chaos—the Kings' leap to second with minimal odds felt like watching someone win basketball's powerball. As much as we analysts try to predict outcomes, there's always that element of surprise that keeps us coming back.
Reflecting on that 2018 class now, I can't help but notice how many teams wish they could redraft knowing what we know today. Marvin Bagley III going second to Sacramento over Doncic will likely haunt Kings fans for generations, while Michael Porter Jr. sliding to fourteenth due to health concerns looks like a steal in hindsight. These evaluations remind me why I love this business—the draft combines analytics with human intuition in ways that constantly humble even the most experienced scouts.
The real lesson from that 2018 lottery extends beyond who picked where—it's about how organizations build around their selections. Teams that embraced their cultural identity, much like Bajramovic's emphasis on playing with heart and determination, tended to develop their picks more successfully. The Grizzlies at fourth took Jaren Jackson Jr., who perfectly embodied their grit-and-grind mentality despite the franchise transitioning to a new era. Meanwhile, some teams with higher picks struggled because they drafted talented players who didn't fit their system. I've seen this pattern repeat across multiple draft classes—culture eats strategy for breakfast, even with lottery picks.
As we approach new draft seasons, I find myself thinking back to that 2018 lottery and Bajramovic's words more frequently. The teams that succeed long-term aren't necessarily those who win the lottery most often, but those who understand how to integrate new talent into their existing identity. My advice to struggling franchises would be to first define their version of that Ginebra mantra—that core philosophy—before they even look at draft prospects. Because at the end of the day, where your team lands in the lottery matters far less than what you build once you get there.