I still remember the 2016 opening ceremonies at Plaza Mayor like it was yesterday—the energy, the anticipation, the sheer spectacle of it all. Now, with UST returning as hosts for the first time since Season 79, there's this palpable sense of history repeating itself, but with a fresh twist. That same venue, those same roaring crowds, yet a completely different batch of young talents ready to take the NBA by storm. As someone who's been analyzing draft odds for over a decade, I can't help but draw parallels between then and now, especially when it comes to betting predictions. Back in 2016, we saw Ben Simmons go first overall with what felt like inevitable certainty, but the real money was made on the sleeper picks—guys like Jaylen Brown at number three, who defied the skeptics and are now franchise cornerstones. Fast forward to 2017, and the dynamics feel both familiar and wildly different.
Let's dive straight into the top picks, because honestly, that's where the action is. Markelle Fultz heading to the 76ers at number one seemed almost locked in by March, with betting odds hovering around -500 at most sportsbooks. I placed my own wager on him back in April, and I'll admit, it felt like stealing candy from a baby. The kid's combination of size, shooting, and playmaking was just too good to pass up, and Philadelphia's need for a primary ball-handler made it a perfect marriage. Then there's Lonzo Ball to the Lakers at number two—a pick that had everyone from casual fans to hardened analysts buzzing. The odds shifted dramatically throughout the season, starting at around +300 in some places before tightening to nearly -200 by draft night. I've always been a bit skeptical of the hype around Ball; his unorthodox shot mechanics and defensive questions gave me pause, but the Lakers' clear infatuation with him made it a smart bet for those who got in early. What fascinates me, though, is how these top picks reflect broader trends in team-building. We're seeing franchises prioritize versatile, multi-skilled players over traditional positional fits, and that's something I've championed for years in my analysis.
Moving down the board, the real intrigue begins with picks three through ten. Jayson Tatum to the Celtics at number three was a masterstroke, in my opinion, even if the odds were less favorable—around +150 at one point. I've always valued scoring wings who can create their own shot, and Tatum's polished offensive game stood out in a draft loaded with potential. Then there's Josh Jackson to the Suns at number four, a pick that divided analysts. I'll be honest: I wasn't as high on Jackson as others, citing his inconsistent jumper and off-court concerns, but the Suns' bet on his athleticism and defensive upside could pay off handsomely. De'Aaron Fox at five to the Kings felt like a steal to me; his blistering speed and improving playmaking reminded me of a young John Wall, and I'd placed a small wager on him going top-five as early as February. The draft's middle section—picks like Jonathan Isaac to Orlando at six or Lauri Markkanen to Chicago at seven—offered some of the best value for bettors. Isaac's defensive versatility, in particular, is something I've long advocated for in modern big men, and his +400 odds to go in the top six were downright generous.
Now, let's talk about the sleeper picks and long shots, because this is where the real magic happens in draft betting. Donovan Mitchell going thirteenth to the Jazz was a shock to many, but I'd been tracking his rise since the combine, where his athletic testing scores blew everyone away. I'd put a modest bet on him going in the top fifteen at +250, and watching him exceed even my optimistic projections has been a thrill. Then there's Bam Adebayo to the Heat at fourteen—a pick that flew under the radar but could yield huge dividends. I've always valued big men who can switch on defense and finish around the rim, and Adebayo's raw tools fit that mold perfectly. On the flip side, some picks left me scratching my head. Frank Ntilikina to the Knicks at eight, for instance, felt like a reach based on the odds; I'd have preferred Dennis Smith Jr., who slid to ninth but had far more explosive potential, in my view. These are the kinds of calculated risks that define draft betting—weighing consensus against gut feeling, and sometimes, just trusting the tape.
As we look back on the 2017 draft, it's clear that the betting markets were both prescient and flawed in equal measure. The top two picks were near-certainties, but the real value lay in the mid-lottery, where odds often mispriced talent due to team needs or pre-draft narratives. From my perspective, the draft reinforced a few key lessons: first, that athleticism and versatility are becoming non-negotiable in today's NBA; second, that betting on high-character players with strong work ethics—like Tatum or Mitchell—often pays off in the long run; and third, that no amount of analysis can fully predict how these young men will develop. I've learned to embrace the uncertainty, to trust my eyes over the noise, and to remember that for every sure thing, there's a sleeper waiting to prove us all wrong. So as we gear up for future drafts, I'll carry these insights with me—along with the memory of that 2016 opening at Plaza Mayor, a reminder that in sports, as in betting, history has a way of shaping the present in the most unexpected ways.